2023 River Watch
Summary: It’s been a cold April. While the ice thickness is around average, there are near record-level snowpack levels. Breakup is expected to start around May 7th in McGrath, but will likely be “dynamic” and there is a high chance of ice jams.
More information: The Alaska-Pacific Forecast Center is part of the National Weather Service and produces weather and river breakup estimates. Before and during breakup, the Center organizes river-wide calls to share information. The first call for 2023 was on April 25th, and the following information was shared.
The current situation is similar to 1972 and 1985 in terms of snowpack and temperatures. Ice thicknesses are average or below level. Bethel Search and Rescue has been providing ice measurements and ice is ranging between 30-40 inches which is normal for this time of year.
In 2009 and 2013, which were big breakup years, the ice thickness was much higher. McGrath measured 34 inches of snowpack on April 15th and we know the snowpack is well above average in Upper Kuskokwim drainage. While we are expecting warmer temperatures in the next 2 weeks, the temperatures will still be colder than normal for this time of year. Given this, we will likely have a later breakup and expect it to start in McGrath between May 7th-13th and in Bethel from May 14th onwards. The high snowpack in combination with the late breakup will likely result in ice jams along the Kuskokwim.
Village Report:
McGrath - river still pretty solid. Residents still ice-fishing and snow pack is still pretty deep.
Sleetmute - Eyes on Ice kids measured ice. Probably a bit higher than average for being in late April, but not significantly. A traveler came from Holy Cross and was able to travel across the ice. 30 inches of snow.
Crooked Creek - very high level of snows. Unseasonably cold, haven’t seen a bird yet.
Aniak - average ice thickness, lots of snow on bank. 5ft 16 inches above first crossing near Jerry Simeon’s place.
Kalskag - lots of snow with little snowmelt. Compacted snow on river with little breakthrough. Average ice in middle or river is 28-36 inches. Ice fishing spots are about 36 inches thick. All hills and valley have a lot of snow, when typically hills would have bare rock on them. Still thick enough for trucks to drive on river. No marked trails on river.
Bethel - BSAR has been all over river from Aniak-Tuntuliak. Ice is thick but not that thick. Measured two spots below Kalskag and found 51 inches. Tuluksak-Bethel there is lots of sand on river which was covered by late season fresh snow. But sand is starting to poke through, so there will be more deterioration in ice. Napakiak-Napaskiak - thinner ice. Water level is extremely low. In. Speaker remembers that in 1972 Bethel flooded and in 1985 both Kalskags flooded.
