Over the past couple of weeks, there's been a lot of talk about the upcoming salmon fishery on the Kuskokwim. Specifically for Kings. With KYUK hosting two radio talks about King Conservation (VIEW HERE), and ADF&G publishing several News Releases (VIEW HERE)....there is a bit of anticipation in the air. As ADF&G area management biologist Travis Elison labels the feeling, they are: "cautiously optimistic".
The run size for Chinook is expected to be greater than last year (last year was the lowest total return on record), and the opportunities to fish are expected to be greater as well. Why? What’s changed from 2012?
In 2012, ADF&G was managing for a non established Management Object of 127,000 Chinook. A whole river escapement goal was not available last year; only tributary escapement goals were established. In fall of 2012, the department published the Chinook salmon run reconstruction - giving a whole picture of the total Kuskokwim run from 1976-2011. Using that information, they completed a spawner recruit analysis – where the total return from a single spawning event is estimated. From this data, a drainage wide escapement goal could be established, allowing them to manage for the entire river, not just tributaries. The 2013 escapement goal for Chinook salmon of 65,000-120,000 was established.
The forecast for the total run in 2013 is for the return of 160,000-240,000 kings for the entire drainage including escapement and harvest. Even at the lower end of the estimate, that would leave just enough fish for average subsistence harvest of 85,000 fish, plus 10- 20,000 fish above the lower end of the escapement goal (65,000-120,000). However, forecasts are not perfect – last year the actual run size was about 100,000 fish, where the forecast had been 155,000-233,000. Just a reminder that a forecast is a pre-season estimate of the return in the following year, allowing ADF&G to develop a preseason management strategy. Once we are in season, Bethel Test Fish data and subsistence fishermen reports are used to re-evaluate projection of the return as related to escapement goals, thus changing management strategies.
The Kuskokwim River Salmon Management Working Group is made up of sport fisherman, subsistence fisherman, commercial fishermen, fish processors, ADF&G representatives, FWS representatives, concerned members of the community, tribal representatives, and I'm sure others I've forgotten to list here. They all spend many hours working to achieve the goals of communities up and down the Kuskokwim River - a sustainable future for the salmon in the Kuskokwim as well as the opportunity for harvest. Hopefully a common goal this year among all - working group members, fishermen and members of the public alike - will be for the sustainable future of this important resource - the Chinook salmon, so that generations to come may enjoy what we have enjoyed for so long. As for now, we're still waiting for the first fish to come in, so I'm with Travis - feeling cautiously optimistic.
